Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting4-5, 3 RBI
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Daylen LileBatting1-3
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras singled to right, Frelick scored and Perkins scored, Hamilton to third.6–1
- 7House grounded out to third, Abrams scored.4–1
- 5Black doubled to left, Contreras scored, Rengifo to third.4–0
- 5Rengifo grounded into fielder's choice to first, Turang scored, Bauers out at second, Contreras to third.3–0
- 3Contreras singled to center, Hamilton scored, Turang to second.2–0
- 1Mitchell scored on a passed ball by Millas.1–0
- 1Mitchell scored on a passed ball by Millas.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 59%
- ML MIL -163 / WSH +135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.8%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -146
- WSH +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.4 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +1 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +55 Elo | MIL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.52nd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 3–1030th of 30 |
| 25th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15096th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 145727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–13 | 18–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 17–13 | 21–8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 11–10 WSH in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.