Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Curtis MeadBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Mets- Juan SotoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mead homered to center (392 feet).14–2
- 7Young singled to center, Wood scored, Abrams to second, Mead to third.13–2
- 7Wood doubled to center, Nuñez scored and Wiemer scored.12–2
- 6Abrams singled to right, Mead scored, Abrams to second, House to third.10–2
- 5Melendez reached on infield single to first, Bichette scored, Soto to second.9–2
- 4House homered to left center (385 feet), Nuñez scored, Wood scored and Mead scored.9–1
- 4Mead hit by pitch, Wiemer scored, Wood to second, Nuñez to third.5–1
- 4Wood walked, Lile scored, Nuñez to second, Wiemer to third.4–1
- 4Wiemer reached on infield single to third, Young scored, Lile to second.3–1
- 3Soto homered to left center (375 feet).2–1
- 1Young grounded out to first, Mead scored, Abrams to third.2–0
- 1Abrams singled to right, Wood scored, Mead to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 60%
- ML WSH +139 / NYM -169
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 58.7%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -150
- WSH +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −13 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +61 Elo | NYM 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 6–1028th of 30 |
| 5th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149421st of 30 |
| 29th of 301451 | Elo rating | 149120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–14 | 10–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–8–3 | 11–14–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 14–26 NYM in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 40.