Colorado Rockies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Troy JohnstonBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Mets- Brett BatyBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Baty singled to center, Bichette and Mauricio scored, Alvarez to second.4–3
- 7Johnston singled to center, Goodman scored and Rumfield scored.4–1
- 6McCarthy doubled to center, Karros scored, Tovar to third.2–1
- 5Rumfield grounded out to pitcher, Doyle scored, Goodman to second, Moniak to third.1–1
- 2Semien grounded into double play, Baty scored, Vientos out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 64%
- ML COL +169 / NYM -207
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 65.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- NYM -181
- COL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.8 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +110 Elo | NYM 65.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 64.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.025th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 5–724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 150612th of 30 |
| 30th of 301407 | Elo rating | 149518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–10 | 9–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 5–11 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–16 | 11–12–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–12 NYM in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.