Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting4-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rockies- TJ RumfieldBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Beck hit sacrifice fly to right, Karros scored.12–3
- 9Rushing homered to right center (421 feet), Espinal scored.12–2
- 9Muncy homered to left center (397 feet).10–2
- 8Rumfield homered to right (440 feet).9–2
- 8T. Hernández singled to right, Ohtani scored.9–1
- 8Rushing homered to left (385 feet).8–1
- 7Rojas hit sacrifice bunt, Pages scored, Rojas to first on fielding error by pitcher Gordon, Muncy to second.7–1
- 6Call walked, Muncy scored, Ohtani to second, Rojas to third.6–1
- 4Muncy scored on a balk, Espinal to second on a balk, Rojas to third on a balk.5–1
- 4Muncy scored on a balk, Espinal to second on a balk, Rojas to third on a balk.5–1
- 3T. Hernández grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Call scored, Smith out at second.4–1
- 3Smith grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ohtani scored, Call safe at second on fielding error by third baseman Karros, Call safe at third on error.3–1
- 2Rojas homered to left (401 feet).2–1
- 2Muncy homered to right center (419 feet).1–1
- 1Doyle doubled to left, Beck scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -199 / COL +163
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.2%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -175
- COL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.6 – 5.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +11 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.96 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +109 Elo | LAD 65.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.3 | Margin | −0.518th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 6–35th of 30 |
| 27th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15144th of 30 |
| 1st of 301565 | Elo rating | 140730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–10 | 14–8 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–10 | — |
| Underdog | — | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11–1 | 8–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 32–10 COL in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 42.