Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting1-3
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Freeland hit sacrifice fly to left, Pages scored.7–1
- 5Muncy homered to right (419 feet).6–1
- 4Johnston grounded out to third, Moniak scored.5–1
- 4Smith singled to left, Tucker scored.5–0
- 3Pages hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeman scored, Muncy to third.4–0
- 3Muncy doubled to right, Smith scored, Freeman to third.3–0
- 2Muncy homered to center (452 feet).2–0
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML LAD -328 / COL +258
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 70.3%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -274
- COL +274 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.9 – 3.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +1 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +150 Elo | LAD 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 72.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 73.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.922nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.6 | Margin | −0.419th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 305–1 | Road vs home | 4–25th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15079th of 30 |
| 1st of 301568 | Elo rating | 140430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–8 | 12–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–8 | — |
| Underdog | — | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 8–9–1 | 7–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 31–8 COL in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 39.