Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Alex FreelandBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rushing grounded out to second, Smith scored, Pages to second, Muncy to third.6–9
- 9Smith singled to right, Ohtani scored.5–9
- 8Moniak grounded into fielder's choice to first, Doyle scored, Julien out at second.4–9
- 8Julien singled to right, Castro scored and Karros scored, Doyle to third.4–8
- 7Freeman singled to left, Goodman scored.4–6
- 7Moniak homered to right center (428 feet), Julien scored.4–5
- 6Freeland singled to right, Call scored, Kim to third.4–3
- 5Julien singled to center, McCarthy scored.3–3
- 5Karros homered to left center (448 feet).3–2
- 4Rumfield singled to right, Moniak scored, Goodman to second.3–1
- 4Ward singled to right, Pages scored, Call to second.3–0
- 3Ohtani doubled to right, Freeland scored.2–0
- 3Freeland singled to right, Kim scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -207 / COL +169
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.0%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -181
- COL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 6.7 – 5.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +4 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.91 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +123 Elo | LAD 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.823rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.2 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.5 | Margin | −0.622nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 306–2 | Road vs home | 5–38th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15116th of 30 |
| 1st of 301568 | Elo rating | 140430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–9 | 13–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–9 | — |
| Underdog | — | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 8–11–1 | 7–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 32–9 COL in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 41.