San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting4-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Zach AgnosPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sheets homered to right (379 feet), Bogaerts scored and Johnson scored.10–8
- 9Andujar singled to right, Machado scored, Bogaerts to third.7–8
- 9Bogaerts singled to center, Merrill scored, Machado to second.6–8
- 8Laureano singled to right, Fermin scored, Cronenworth to second.5–8
- 7Johnston singled to right, Freeman scored.4–8
- 6Moniak homered to center (429 feet).4–7
- 5Bogaerts homered to left (375 feet).4–6
- 4Freeman hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Julien scored, Rumfield to second.3–6
- 4Laureano tripled to center, Cronenworth scored.3–5
- 2Johnston singled to left, Rumfield scored, Castro to second.2–5
- 2Rumfield doubled to right, Moniak scored and Julien scored.2–4
- 2Julien singled to left, McCarthy scored.2–2
- 2Andujar doubled to left, Bogaerts scored and Machado scored.2–1
- 1Moniak homered to right (386 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 58%
- ML SD -156 / COL +129
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- SD: Elo 63.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -140
- COL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 5.6 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −9 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.88 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +94 Elo | SD 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–4 | Road vs home | 7–512th of 30 |
| 29th of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 15163rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301529 | Elo rating | 140830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–11 | 16–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–6 | — |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 9–14–1 | 9–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 29–16 COL in their last 45 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 45.