San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Bryce JohnsonBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting0-2, 1 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Neto grounded out to shortstop, Peraza scored.2–1
- 7Johnson singled to left, Bogaerts scored, Sheets to third.2–0
- 4Bogaerts singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML SD -149 / LAA +123
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- SD: Elo 59.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -133
- LAA +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.8 – 4.2 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −8 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +64 Elo | SD 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.26th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 5th of 305–3 | Road vs home | 4–418th of 30 |
| 29th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 15191st of 30 |
| 5th of 301532 | Elo rating | 146527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–8 | 13–9 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–11–1 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 6–5 LAA in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.