San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4
- Matt WaldronPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Angels- Josh LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Lowe homered to right (364 feet), Peraza scored.0–8
- 4Adell doubled to center, Schanuel scored and Trout scored.0–6
- 4Schanuel singled to left, Frazier scored, Trout to second.0–4
- 2Neto singled to center, Frazier scored.0–3
- 2Frazier tripled to right, O'Hoppe scored.0–2
- 2Moncada homered to center (388 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 55%
- ML SD +113 / LAA -136
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 46.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -123
- SD +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +13 | SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +24 Elo | SD 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.36th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 3rd of 304–2 | Road vs home | 3–319th of 30 |
| 29th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 15172nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301533 | Elo rating | 146327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–7 | 12–8 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | — |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9–1 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–4 LAA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.