San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-4, 2 RBI
- German MarquezPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tatis Jr. singled to center, Fermin scored, Cronenworth to second.4–1
- 9Laureano hit sacrifice fly to center, Johnson scored, Fermin to third.3–1
- 8Schanuel singled to center, O'Hoppe scored, Frazier to third.2–1
- 8Tatis Jr. singled to right, Cronenworth scored, Laureano to third.2–0
- 8Laureano singled to center, Fermin scored, Cronenworth to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 50%
- ML SD -110 / LAA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 45.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -100
- SD -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.8 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | −10 | SD: German Marquez: team allows 1.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +31 Elo | SD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.45th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.721st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 7th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 4–317th of 30 |
| 29th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 15182nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301530 | Elo rating | 146727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–8 | 13–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–3 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 4–5 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 9–10–1 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 5–5 LAA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.