San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cronenworth grounded out to third, Campusano scored.3–8
- 8Goodman homered to left center (427 feet).2–8
- 7McCarthy singled to right, Karros scored, Castro to second.2–7
- 7Campusano homered to left (401 feet).2–6
- 6Rumfield doubled to center, Moniak scored.1–6
- 4Rumfield singled to right, Goodman scored.1–5
- 2Freeman reached on infield single to shortstop, Julien scored, Goodman to second, Moniak to third.1–4
- 2Moniak doubled to right, McCarthy scored, Julien to third.1–3
- 2Julien singled to center, Castro scored, McCarthy to third.1–2
- 2Castro singled to right, Johnston scored.1–1
- 1Merrill singled to center, Laureano scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 59%
- ML SD -163 / COL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.7 pts
- SD: Elo 67.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -146
- COL +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 6.4 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −2 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +123 Elo | SD 67.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Road vs home | 6–515th of 30 |
| 29th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 15173rd of 30 |
| 5th of 301533 | Elo rating | 140430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–10 | 15–9 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | — |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 9–13–1 | 9–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 29–15 COL in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 44.