Minnesota Twins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Mets- Brett BatyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gray singled to right, Lee scored.8–10
- 8Bichette doubled to left, Baty scored, Pham scored and Semien scored.7–10
- 8Jeffers homered to left (377 feet), Lee scored, Larnach scored and Bell scored.7–7
- 6Gray homered to right center (401 feet).3–7
- 4Benge homered to right center (388 feet).2–7
- 4Bell singled to left, Lee scored, Larnach to second.2–6
- 2Robert Jr. doubled to left, Bichette scored, Soto to third.1–6
- 2Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to left, Benge scored.1–5
- 2Bichette struck out, Semien scored on a passed ball by Jeffers, Bichette to first on passed ball by Jeffers, Benge to third on passed ball by Jeffers.1–4
- 1Baty homered to right (414 feet), Bichette scored and Robert Jr. scored.1–3
- 1Martin walked, Larnach scored, Clemens to second, Jeffers to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML MIN -105 / NYM -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- MIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.7 – 3.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −13 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +16 Elo | NYM 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.329th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.128th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 19th of 305–6 | Road vs home | 4–727th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150710th of 30 |
| 26th of 301481 | Elo rating | 149319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–10 | 8–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 4–11 |
| Underdog | 12–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–10–1 | 10–12–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 6–5 NYM in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.