Minnesota Twins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wallner walked, Jeffers scored, Keaschall to second, Clemens to third.5–3
- 9Keaschall singled to left, Outman scored, Clemens to second, Jeffers to third.4–3
- 7Keaschall singled to center, Clemens scored.3–3
- 6Buxton homered to left (374 feet), Wallner scored.2–3
- 3Lindor homered to right (410 feet), Benge scored and Semien scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 59%
- ML MIN +135 / NYM -163
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -146
- MIN +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 3.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +38 Elo | NYM 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 3–626th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 30 |
| 26th of 301480 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–10 | 8–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 4–9 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 12–9–1 | 9–11–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 5–4 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.