Colorado Rockies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jake McCarthyBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Mets- Tyrone TaylorBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7McCarthy singled to right, Sullivan scored.3–1
- 6Johnston grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Julien scored, Rumfield out at second, Moniak to third.2–1
- 5Taylor homered to left center (381 feet).1–1
- 4Johnston singled to right, Julien scored, Rumfield to second, Moniak to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 70%
- ML COL +218 / NYM -271
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 64.5%, market 69.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -232
- COL +232 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 2.6 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1409 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | COL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +104 Elo | NYM 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 69.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.529th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 25th of 304–10 | Road vs home | 5–826th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 150216th of 30 |
| 30th of 301409 | Elo rating | 149319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–10 | 9–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–16–1 | 11–12–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 7–12 NYM in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 19.