Colorado Rockies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase DollanderPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Mets- Carson BengeBatting2-4
- Carl Edwards Jr.Pitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Goodman homered to right center (390 feet), Julien scored.3–0
- 2Johnston singled to right, Freeman scored, Karros to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 60%
- ML COL +139 / NYM -168
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 62.4%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -150
- COL +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.1 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | — | −10 | COL: Starter not announced · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +88 Elo | NYM 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 64.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–10 | Road vs home | 5–927th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 30th of 301411 | Elo rating | 149120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–10 | 9–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 18–10 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–17–1 | 11–13–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 8–12 NYM in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.