Washington Nationals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Brady HouseBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Antonacci hit sacrifice fly to left, Vargas scored, Montgomery to third.4–5
- 8House homered to right center (374 feet).4–4
- 7Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña scored, Peters to second.3–4
- 7Peters reached on bunt single to pitcher, Antonacci scored on throwing error by pitcher Cornelio, Acuña safe at third on error.3–3
- 6Montgomery singled to right, Benintendi scored, Murakami to third.3–2
- 5House grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Millas scored, Lile out at second, Wood to third.3–1
- 5Lile walked, García Jr. scored, Wood to second, Millas to third.2–1
- 4Murakami homered to center (415 feet).1–1
- 2García Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Vivas scored, Nuñez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 54%
- ML WSH +109 / CHW -132
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- CHW: Elo 50.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHW -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.6 – 4.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1451 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +2 | WSH: PJ Poulin: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHW: Bryan Hudson (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +3 Elo | CHW 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 5th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 3–628th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 150118th of 30 |
| 28th of 301451 | Elo rating | 145029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–13 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 18–6–2 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–5 CHW in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.