Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching3.2 IP, 8 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Ildemaro VargasBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Perdomo tripled to left, Carroll scored.7–11
- 7Murakami homered to center (451 feet), Vargas scored.7–10
- 6Arenado homered to left center (411 feet), Fernandez scored.5–10
- 6Benintendi grounded out to second, Peters scored.5–8
- 4Arenado singled to center, Perdomo scored, Fernandez to third.4–8
- 4Carroll scored on a balk, Perdomo to second on a balk.4–7
- 4Carroll scored on a balk, Perdomo to second on a balk.4–7
- 4Montgomery homered to right center (423 feet).4–6
- 3Vargas homered to left center (405 feet), Arenado scored.3–6
- 3Vargas homered to left center (428 feet).3–4
- 2Carroll singled to right, Marte scored.2–4
- 2Vargas homered to left (420 feet), Fernandez scored and Arenado scored.2–3
- 1Montgomery grounded into fielder's choice to second, Vargas scored, Quero out at second, Pereira to third.2–0
- 1Quero walked, Meidroth scored, Pereira to second, Vargas to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML CHW +123 / ARI -149
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 62.1%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -133
- CHW +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1449 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +12 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +86 Elo | ARI 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.1 | Margin | −0.417th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 7–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15124th of 30 |
| 29th of 301449 | Elo rating | 150913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–12 | 15–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 15–8 | 13–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–6 ARI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.