Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting3-5
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carroll homered to left center (389 feet), Vargas scored, Thomas scored and Marte scored.2–6
- 6Okamoto singled to left, Jiménez scored, Okamoto to second.2–2
- 5Thomas doubled to right, Fernandez scored.1–2
- 1Perdomo singled to center, Carroll scored.1–1
- 1Sánchez singled to center, Lukes scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML TOR +124 / ARI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 57.6%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -134
- TOR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +13 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +53 Elo | ARI 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–6 | Road vs home | 6–22nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15163rd of 30 |
| 11th of 301515 | Elo rating | 151412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–13 | 14–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–9 | 11–7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–4 ARI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.