Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Myles StrawBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tawa doubled to center, McCann scored.3–6
- 8Guerrero Jr. singled to center, Heineman scored.3–5
- 7Arenado singled to center, Carroll scored, Fernandez to third.2–5
- 7Marte scored on error, Fernandez safe at first on throwing error by first baseman Guerrero Jr., Carroll safe at third on error.2–4
- 6Straw homered to left (385 feet).2–3
- 5Fernandez singled to center, Marte scored, Carroll to second.1–3
- 5Carroll singled to center, Barrosa scored, Marte to second.1–2
- 4Arenado homered to left (382 feet).1–1
- 4Sosa hit sacrifice bunt to third, Straw scored, Sánchez to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 56%
- ML TOR +119 / ARI -143
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -129
- TOR +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −12 | TOR: Braydon Fisher: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +12 Elo | ARI 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.215th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 28th of 301–5 | Road vs home | 5–23rd of 30 |
| 26th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15173rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301517 | Elo rating | 151212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–12 | 13–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 9–9 | 10–7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–3 ARI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.