Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Colson MontgomeryBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Ildemaro VargasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching4.1 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vargas homered to right (374 feet), Fernandez scored and Arenado scored.11–5
- 9Benintendi grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, Meidroth scored, McGuire out at second, Peters to third.11–2
- 9Antonacci inside-the-park homered to left (57 feet), Pereira scored.10–2
- 5Thomas homered to left center (415 feet).8–2
- 5McGuire hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Meidroth scored, Peters to second.8–1
- 4Gurriel Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Perdomo scored.7–1
- 2Montgomery homered to center (440 feet).7–0
- 2Vargas homered to left (372 feet).6–0
- 2Murakami homered to right (426 feet).5–0
- 1Antonacci tripled to center, Montgomery scored.4–0
- 1Pereira hit sacrifice fly to right, Vargas scored, Montgomery to third.3–0
- 1Montgomery doubled to center, Benintendi scored and Murakami scored, Vargas to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 56%
- ML CHW +116 / ARI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 64.6%, market 55.8%
- Fair odds
- ARI -126
- CHW +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 4.2 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +14 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +105 Elo | ARI 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15154th of 30 |
| 29th of 301445 | Elo rating | 151312th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–12 | 15–7 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 14–8 | 12–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–6 ARI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.