Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kazuma OkamotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Jorge BarrosaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Barrosa homered to left (351 feet), Marte scored.10–4
- 6Del Castillo doubled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.10–2
- 4Giménez hit sacrifice fly to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.10–1
- 3Okamoto homered to left center (406 feet).9–1
- 2McCann singled to left, Del Castillo scored, Arenado to second.8–1
- 1Lukes doubled to left, Giménez scored, Straw scored and Okamoto scored.8–0
- 1Okamoto doubled to left, Sánchez scored and Jiménez scored, Giménez to third.5–0
- 1Jiménez singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Sánchez to second.3–0
- 1Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Lukes scored and Clement scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 52%
- ML TOR -117 / ARI -103
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.9%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- TOR -106
- ARI +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 3.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −17 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.87 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +7 Elo | TOR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301–7 | Road vs home | 7–22nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15153rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301513 | Elo rating | 151610th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–14 | 15–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–10 | 11–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–5 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.