Chicago White Sox at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4
- Michael SorokaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benintendi homered to right center (410 feet), Meidroth scored and Quero scored.4–1
- 3Vargas singled to center, Benintendi scored, Murakami to second.1–1
- 1Del Castillo doubled to right, Marte scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML CHW +123 / ARI -149
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.3%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -133
- CHW +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −9 | CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +58 Elo | ARI 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 61.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.812th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 306–9 | Road vs home | 8–45th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15095th of 30 |
| 29th of 301448 | Elo rating | 151112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–13 | 16–8 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 11–12 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 16–8 | 14–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 4–7 ARI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.