Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4
- Zack LittellPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 4Soto homered to left center (381 feet), Mauricio scored.0–8
- 4Bichette hit sacrifice fly to right, Benge scored.0–6
- 4Benge singled to center, Baty scored and Semien scored.0–5
- 4Semien grounded into fielder's choice to third, Melendez scored and Vientos scored on error, Semien second, Baty safe at third on error.0–3
- 1Bichette homered to right center (386 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 62%
- ML WSH +149 / NYM -181
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 59.3%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- NYM -160
- WSH +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1454 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +3 | WSH: Zack Littell: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +65 Elo | NYM 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.9 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 5–1029th of 30 |
| 4th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 28th of 301454 | Elo rating | 148820th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–13 | 9–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 5–14 |
| Underdog | 15–11 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–8–2 | 11–14–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 14–25 NYM in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 39.