Washington Nationals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nasim NunezBatting2-4, 4 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
White Sox- Chase MeidrothBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Noah SchultzPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Murray hit sacrifice fly to center, Montgomery scored.6–3
- 10Nuñez singled to right, García Jr. scored and Lile scored, Wiemer to third.6–2
- 10Wiemer walked, Mead scored, Lile to second, García Jr. to third.4–2
- 10Wood scored on a passed ball by Romo, García Jr. to second on passed ball by Romo, Mead to third on passed ball by Romo.3–2
- 10Wood scored on a passed ball by Romo, García Jr. to second on passed ball by Romo, Mead to third on passed ball by Romo.3–2
- 8Meidroth hit sacrifice fly to center, Montgomery scored.2–2
- 8Pereira singled to left, Vargas scored, Montgomery to second.2–1
- 4Nuñez singled to center, House scored and Lile scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 56%
- ML WSH +119 / CHW -143
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- CHW: Elo 52.7%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- CHW -129
- WSH +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −5 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +18 Elo | CHW 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 5.225th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 4–625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 29th of 301450 | Elo rating | 145128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–13 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 18–7–2 | 16–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–6 CHW in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.