Washington Nationals at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Jose TenaBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Foster GriffinPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
White Sox- Tristan PetersBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching7.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Peters singled to center, Hill scored.2–1
- 10Tena homered to right center (403 feet).2–0
- 10Abrams hit sacrifice fly to left, Lile scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 53%
- ML WSH +102 / CHW -122
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CHW: Elo 51.2%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- CHW -111
- WSH +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.6 – 3.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +4 | WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · CHW: Bryan Hudson: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +9 Elo | CHW 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.5 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 29th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 6th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 4–727th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 28th of 301453 | Elo rating | 144929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–13 | 12–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 19–7–2 | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–6 CHW in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.