Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carroll homered to right center (430 feet).6–2
- 9Marte homered to right (409 feet).5–2
- 4Arenado homered to left center (411 feet), Vargas scored and Gurriel Jr. scored.4–2
- 4Del Castillo homered to left center (377 feet).1–2
- 3Turang doubled to center, Lockridge scored.0–2
- 1Bauers doubled to center, Turang scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML ARI +114 / MIL -137
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.0 – 4.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −9 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +36 Elo | MIL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 9–711th of 30 |
| 6th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149125th of 30 |
| 13th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15413rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–11 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 12–3 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–10–2 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 14–9 MIL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.