Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Konnor GriffinBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-3
- Brandon WoodruffPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Griffin singled to center, Gonzales scored and O'Hearn scored, Cook to third.6–0
- 6Horwitz singled to center, O'Hearn scored.4–0
- 5Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to first, Horwitz scored, Griffin third.3–0
- 4Gonzales singled to left, Lowe scored, Reynolds thrown out at second.2–0
- 3Griffin homered to right center (386 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML PIT -112 / MIL -108
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 39.0%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- PIT -102
- MIL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 3.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +77 Elo | MIL 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 5.26th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 7–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148726th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–11 | 14–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–11 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 14–25 MIL in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 39.