Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting1-3
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Brandon LockridgeBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 4Lockridge singled to left, Rengifo scored and Hamilton scored.0–5
- 4Hamilton doubled to right, Frelick scored, Rengifo to third.0–3
- 4Rengifo singled to center, Bauers scored, Frelick to second.0–2
- 4Sánchez grounded out to second, Contreras scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML PIT +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 3.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +3 | PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +57 Elo | MIL 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 8th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 7–719th of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149025th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Elo rating | 15364th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–11 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–12 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 16–25 MIL in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 41.