Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting2-5
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Gonzales singled to left, Reynolds scored on fielding error by left fielder Jones and Yorke scored on error.6–3
- 10Reynolds singled to left, Davis scored, Yorke to second.4–3
- 6Frelick hit sacrifice fly to right, Bauers scored.3–3
- 6Horwitz hit sacrifice fly to left, O'Hearn scored, Gonzales to third.3–2
- 4Frelick hit sacrifice fly to right, Black scored.2–2
- 4Mitchell grounded out to shortstop, Bauers scored, Black to third.2–1
- 4Griffin singled to right, Gonzales scored, Mangum to third.2–0
- 4Horwitz singled to center, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML PIT +115 / MIL -138
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.5%, market 55.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -125
- PIT +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −10 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +59 Elo | MIL 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.08th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 7–614th of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 148925th of 30 |
| 17th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15394th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–11 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–5 | 6–7 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 15–25 MIL in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 40.