San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Diamondbacks- Ildemaro VargasBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte singled to right, Vargas scored.7–12
- 8Vargas tripled to right, Fernandez scored, Arenado scored and Thomas scored.7–11
- 7Gurriel Jr. doubled to left, Carroll scored and Vargas scored.7–8
- 7Tawa homered to left (363 feet), Fernandez scored, Arenado scored and Thomas scored.7–6
- 6Vargas homered to right (360 feet).7–2
- 6Campusano homered to center (421 feet).7–1
- 5Fernandez homered to left (409 feet).6–1
- 5Machado homered to right (395 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Merrill scored.6–0
- 3Machado homered to center (436 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.3–0
- 2Campusano doubled to left, Bogaerts scored, Sheets to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML SD -136 / ARI +113
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- SD: Elo 58.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -123
- ARI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 7.5 – 7.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 14.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −24 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 1.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +60 Elo | SD 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.418th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 30th of 301475 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 5th of 301532 | Elo rating | 150615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–11 | 16–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–15–1 | 14–10–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 22–18 ARI in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 40.