San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Ty FranceBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- German MarquezPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9France homered to right (370 feet).6–4
- 7Laureano hit sacrifice fly to right, Sheets scored on error, Cronenworth safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Carroll, France to third.5–4
- 7Fermin hit sacrifice fly to left, Bogaerts scored.4–4
- 7Sheets singled to right, Machado scored and Merrill scored, Bogaerts to second.3–4
- 5France homered to right center.1–4
- 2Thomas homered to right (400 feet), Fernandez scored.0–4
- 2Fernandez doubled to center, Arenado scored and Vargas scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML SD -108 / ARI -112
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.2%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -102
- SD +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 8.0 – 8.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 16
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +14 | SD: German Marquez: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +8 Elo | ARI 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.022nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 30th of 301473 | Opponent Elo | 15079th of 30 |
| 5th of 301530 | Elo rating | 150812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–11 | 16–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–6 | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 11–2 |
| Overs–unders | 10–14–1 | 14–9–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 21–18 ARI in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 39.