Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- James McCannBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Brewers- Tyler BlackBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hamilton hit a ground rule double, Black scored and Bauers scored, Frelick to third.2–13
- 6Bauers singled to center, Contreras scored and Turang scored, Black to third.2–11
- 6Black singled to center, Mitchell scored, Turang to second, Contreras to third.2–9
- 6Contreras singled to left, Hamilton scored and Ortiz scored, Mitchell to second.2–8
- 6Mitchell singled to left, Frelick scored, Ortiz to second, Hamilton to third.2–6
- 5Black singled to center, Contreras scored and Turang scored.2–5
- 5McCann singled to left, Del Castillo scored and Fernandez scored, Arenado to second.2–3
- 4Ortiz singled to center, Lockridge scored and Frelick scored.0–3
- 2Frelick homered to right center (396 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML ARI +113 / MIL -136
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.9%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -123
- ARI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +13 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +55 Elo | MIL 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.98th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 30 |
| 5th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149025th of 30 |
| 12th of 301510 | Elo rating | 15383rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–10 | 15–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 12–2 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–10–2 | 15–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 14–8 MIL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.