Arizona Diamondbacks at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4, 1 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 2 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting4-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Black walked, Turang scored, Bauers to second, Contreras to third.1–13
- 7Frelick homered to right (402 feet).1–12
- 6Black doubled to right, Contreras scored and Turang scored.1–11
- 6Bauers grounded out to first, Mitchell scored, Contreras to second, Turang to third.1–9
- 4Contreras singled to left, Mitchell scored, Turang to second.1–8
- 4Turang singled to right, Hamilton scored, Mitchell to third.1–7
- 4Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Carroll scored, Vargas to second.1–6
- 3Rengifo grounded out to shortstop, Bauers scored, Black to second.0–6
- 3Contreras homered to center (419 feet), Turang scored.0–5
- 1Rengifo doubled to center, Bauers scored and Contreras scored.0–3
- 1Contreras doubled to left, Mitchell scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML ARI +114 / MIL -137
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.5 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | ARI: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +58 Elo | MIL 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 9–816th of 30 |
| 5th of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 149223rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301509 | Elo rating | 15394th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–11 | 16–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 13–3 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–11–2 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 15–9 MIL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.