Washington Nationals at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Mets- MJ MelendezBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Abrams homered to right center (403 feet), Lile scored.5–4
- 6Vientos doubled to center, Soto scored.3–4
- 3Melendez homered to right (359 feet), Bichette scored and Soto scored.3–3
- 3Abrams singled to left, García Jr. scored.3–0
- 2Young singled to right, Nuñez scored.2–0
- 2Vivas scored on error, Nuñez safe at first on throwing error by pitcher Peralta, Nuñez safe at third on error.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 62%
- ML WSH +153 / NYM -186
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 58.3%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -165
- WSH +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.5 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +7 | WSH: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +58 Elo | NYM 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.4 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 7th of 3011–7 | Road vs home | 6–1129th of 30 |
| 6th of 301510 | Opponent Elo | 149323rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 148623rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–14 | 10–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 6–15 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–8–3 | 12–14–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 15–26 NYM in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 41.