Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brandon LockridgeBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4
- Foster GriffinPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ortiz grounded out to second, Hamilton scored, Frelick to second, Lockridge to third.4–1
- 4Abrams singled to right, Mead scored.3–1
- 1Lockridge singled to left, Bauers and Sánchez scored, Rengifo to second.3–0
- 1Contreras scored, Rengifo safe at first on fielding error by third baseman House, Bauers to second, Sánchez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -137 / WSH +114
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +18 | MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Foster Griffin: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +62 Elo | MIL 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 3–1130th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15124th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301544 | Elo rating | 145528th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–13 | 18–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–9 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders | 17–14 | 21–9–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 12–10 WSH in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.