Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turang homered to center (414 feet), Chourio scored.3–6
- 8Wetherholt singled to center, Scott II scored.1–6
- 7Winn singled to right, Walker scored, Gorman thrown out at third.1–5
- 6Rengifo singled to left, Bauers scored, Frelick to second.1–4
- 4Herrera doubled to center, Church scored, Wetherholt scored and Pagés scored.0–4
- 2Wetherholt singled to center, Winn scored, Scott II to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -126 / STL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.8%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 4.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +3 | MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +47 Elo | MIL 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.923rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | 0.010th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 10th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 9–916th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–14 | 21–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 11–10 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 18–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 23–16 STL in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 39.