St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter DobbinsPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Brandon LoweBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lowe doubled to right, Cruz scored on throwing error by right fielder Walker.10–5
- 8Walker singled to left, Herrera scored, Burleson to second.10–4
- 8Burleson singled to right, Church scored and Scott II scored, Herrera to third.9–4
- 8Church doubled to center, Gorman scored and Winn scored.7–4
- 7Lowe homered to right (416 feet).5–4
- 5Reynolds doubled to left, Cruz scored and Mangum scored.5–3
- 5Burleson singled to left, Wetherholt scored.5–1
- 4Horwitz walked, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to second, O'Hearn to third.4–1
- 3Gorman singled to right, Burleson scored.4–0
- 1Walker homered to left (383 feet), Herrera scored.3–0
- 1Wetherholt homered to right (391 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 67%
- ML STL +189 / PIT -232
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 53.1%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -202
- STL +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +2 | STL: Hunter Dobbins: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +22 Elo | PIT 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.56th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 8–817th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 24th of 301484 | Elo rating | 149219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–12 | 16–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 8–8 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 16–13–1 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 21–21 PIT in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 42.