St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Ryan O'HearnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BarcoPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Griffin homered to right center (403 feet).11–7
- 8Gonzales singled to center, Reynolds scored and O'Hearn scored.11–6
- 8O'Hearn singled to right, Cruz scored, Reynolds to second.11–4
- 8Burleson doubled to right, Herrera scored and Wetherholt scored.11–3
- 7Winn singled to right, Walker scored.9–3
- 7Gorman grounded out to first, Burleson scored, Walker to second.8–3
- 7Walker singled to center, Herrera scored, Burleson to third.7–3
- 6O'Hearn homered to right center (398 feet), Reynolds scored.6–3
- 6Cruz homered to center (414 feet).6–1
- 5Gorman hit sacrifice fly to center, Burleson scored.6–0
- 5Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Herrera scored, Burleson to third.5–0
- 5Burleson hit a ground rule double, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.4–0
- 3Walker singled to left, Wetherholt scored.3–0
- 3Scott II homered to right (415 feet).2–0
- 2Gorman homered to right (413 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML STL +133 / PIT -161
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.5%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -144
- STL +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +31 Elo | PIT 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.711th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 8–611th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 25th of 301480 | Elo rating | 149618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–12 | 16–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 14–10 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–13–1 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 19–21 PIT in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 40.