St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle LeahyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Herrera homered to left center (388 feet).1–4
- 5Ramírez singled to center, Lopez scored.0–4
- 4Marsee singled to right, Jiménez scored, Sanoja thrown out at third.0–3
- 2Marsee walked, Hernández scored, Jiménez to second, Caissie to third.0–2
- 2Caissie singled to left, Ramírez scored, Hernández to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 58%
- ML STL +129 / MIA -156
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 51.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | 0 | STL: Kyle Leahy: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +7 Elo | MIA 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–4 | Road vs home | 9–610th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149718th of 30 |
| 24th of 301484 | Elo rating | 148026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–10 | 9–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–9–1 | 14–8–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–10 MIA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.