St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nathan ChurchBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hernández singled to right, Edwards scored and Hicks scored, Sanoja to third.5–3
- 5Gorman singled to left, Burleson scored.5–1
- 4Church homered to right (370 feet), Winn scored.4–1
- 3Burleson grounded into fielder's choice to first, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to second.2–1
- 1Marsee homered to right (351 feet).1–1
- 1Burleson singled to center, Wetherholt scored, Burleson to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 53%
- ML STL +102 / MIA -122
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- MIA: Elo 54.3%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- MIA -111
- STL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | 0 | STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +30 Elo | MIA 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 9–57th of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149618th of 30 |
| 25th of 301482 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–10 | 9–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–8–1 | 14–7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 10–10 MIA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.