St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, Winn scored.3–5
- 8Hicks singled to right, Lopez scored, Hicks to second, Edwards thrown out at third.2–5
- 6Hicks singled to center, Lopez scored, Hicks to second, Edwards thrown out at home.2–4
- 6Lopez doubled to left, Stowers scored.2–3
- 6Walker scored on Faucher wild pitch, Winn to third on wild pitch by Faucher.2–2
- 6Walker scored on Faucher wild pitch, Winn to third on wild pitch by Faucher.2–2
- 6Walker scored on Faucher wild pitch, Winn to third on wild pitch by Faucher.2–2
- 5Ramírez homered to center (411 feet).1–2
- 4Edwards hit a ground rule double, Stowers scored.1–1
- 4Winn hit sacrifice fly to left, Walker scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 55%
- ML STL +114 / MIA -137
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +2 Elo | MIA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–3 | Road vs home | 8–510th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149618th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Elo rating | 148124th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–9 | 8–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 13–7–1 | 14–6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 10–9 MIA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.