Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Nathan ChurchBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rivas singled to center, Crawford scored and Garver scored, Young to second.11–9
- 8Joe singled to right, Garver scored and Young scored.9–9
- 7Church homered to right center (386 feet), Winn scored.7–9
- 6Canzone singled to center, Young scored.7–7
- 5Arozarena hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodríguez scored.6–7
- 4Young homered to right (423 feet).5–7
- 3Pagés homered to left (392 feet), Winn scored.4–7
- 3Church hit sacrifice fly to center, Gorman scored, Winn to second.4–5
- 3Winn singled to right, Walker scored, Gorman to third.4–4
- 2Church homered to right center (396 feet).4–3
- 2Wilson homered to left (384 feet), Garver scored.4–2
- 1Herrera homered to left center (429 feet).2–2
- 1Wetherholt homered to right (397 feet).2–1
- 1Rodríguez homered to left (402 feet), Raleigh scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SEA -149 / STL +123
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -133
- STL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 3.4 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | 0 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +32 Elo | SEA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.519th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Road vs home | 7–613th of 30 |
| 10th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149422nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301518 | Elo rating | 148125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–16 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 12–9 |
| Overs–unders | 12–15 | 13–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 8–2 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.