St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- JJ WetherholtBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting3-4
- Wilber DotelPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermín doubled to left, Scott II scored and Burleson scored, Walker to third.4–2
- 9Wetherholt homered to right center (408 feet).2–2
- 9Pagés homered to left (381 feet).1–2
- 2Mangum singled to right, Gonzales scored.0–2
- 1O'Hearn singled to right, Lowe scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML STL -102 / PIT -118
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- PIT: Elo 57.1%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- PIT -107
- STL +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +5 | STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mason Montgomery: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +50 Elo | PIT 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–5 | Road vs home | 8–58th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150410th of 30 |
| 25th of 301478 | Elo rating | 149817th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–12 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 8–5 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–12–1 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 18–21 PIT in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 39.