Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Nathan ChurchBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Refsnyder homered to left center (412 feet).3–2
- 7Young singled to right, Joe scored.2–2
- 6Church homered to right (407 feet).1–2
- 4Raleigh homered to right center (401 feet).1–1
- 3Wetherholt homered to right center (375 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -130 / STL +108
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 50.2%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- SEA -118
- STL +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +8 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +1 Elo | SEA 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–8 | Road vs home | 7–720th of 30 |
| 11th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 7th of 301519 | Elo rating | 147925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–16 | 14–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–13 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 12–10 |
| Overs–unders | 13–15 | 14–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 9–2 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.