St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bubba ChandlerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gonzales scored, Mangum out at second, Cook to third.5–4
- 7Yorke singled to center, Bart scored and Griffin scored, Cruz to third.5–3
- 7Walker singled to left, Herrera scored, Walker to second.5–1
- 7Herrera reached on infield single to shortstop, Scott II scored.4–1
- 5Horwitz homered to center (397 feet).3–1
- 5Burleson homered to left center (411 feet), Herrera scored.3–0
- 3Wetherholt doubled to left, Urías scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML STL +114 / PIT -137
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 54.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −3 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bubba Chandler: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +34 Elo | PIT 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 5th of 309–5 | Road vs home | 8–717th of 30 |
| 19th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 25th of 301483 | Elo rating | 149319th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–12 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 8–7 |
| Underdog | 15–10 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13–1 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 20–21 PIT in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 41.