Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4
- Emmet SheehanPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Church grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Walker scored, Winn out at second.2–7
- 7Walker doubled to left, Herrera scored. Burleson scored and Walker safe at third on fielding error by left fielder T. Hernández.2–6
- 6Tucker hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeman scored, Smith to third.2–4
- 3Burleson homered to right (390 feet).1–4
- 2Muncy doubled to center, Pages scored.1–3
- 1Gorman homered to right (388 feet), Walker scored.0–3
- 1Herrera scored on a balk, Walker to third on a balk.0–1
- 1Herrera scored on a balk, Walker to third on a balk.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML LAD -175 / STL +144
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.0%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -155
- STL +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −8 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +70 Elo | LAD 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.07th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 7th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 7–822nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 149519th of 30 |
| 1st of 301566 | Elo rating | 148721st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–16 | 19–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | — | 17–10 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17–1 | 17–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–9 STL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.