Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris PaddackPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tucker singled to center, Ohtani scored and Rushing scored, Freeman to second.4–5
- 9Ohtani hit a ground rule double, Pages scored, Rushing to third.4–3
- 5Hicks homered to right (348 feet), Marsee scored and Edwards scored.4–2
- 4Lopez scored, Sanoja safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Kim, Ramírez to second, Edwards to third.1–2
- 1T. Hernández singled to center, Ohtani scored and Freeman scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 71%
- ML MIA +229 / LAD -286
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.3%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -244
- MIA +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.3 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +21 | MIA: Chris Paddack: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +126 Elo | LAD 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 69.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 69.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.41st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–9 | Road vs home | 11–42nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149027th of 30 |
| 24th of 301481 | Elo rating | 15681st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–17 | 15–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 15–13 |
| Underdog | 4–8 | — |
| Overs–unders | 17–9–2 | 12–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–13 LAD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.