Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Swanson homered to left (413 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.6–4
- 8Bregman homered to left center (408 feet).4–4
- 7Hoerner singled to left, Swanson scored.3–4
- 7Swanson tripled to center, Ballesteros scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.2–4
- 4Kim singled to center, Muncy scored.0–4
- 3Smith homered to right center (386 feet), Kim scored and Freeland scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML CHC +129 / LAD -156
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.2%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- CHC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +5 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +36 Elo | LAD 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.54th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +2.22nd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 9th of 305–4 | Road vs home | 9–32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 148428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301542 | Elo rating | 15641st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–13 | 13–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 13–12 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 15–8–2 | 10–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 11–9 LAD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 20.