Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Hyeseong KimBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 4Kim walked, T. Hernández scored, Rushing to second, Muncy to third.1–3
- 1Lee singled to right, Chapman scored, Devers to second.0–3
- 1Schmitt hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored, Chapman to third.0–2
- 1Devers singled to right, Adames scored, Chapman to second, Arraez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 61%
- ML LAD -175 / SF +144
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.4%, market 60.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -155
- SF +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.2 – 3.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | +5 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 1.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +73 Elo | LAD 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.0 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.6 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Road vs home | 3–728th of 30 |
| 28th of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 1st of 301567 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–10 | 10–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–10 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | — | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 10–11–1 | 10–9–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 25–14 SF in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 39.