Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Giants- Patrick BaileyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bailey homered to left center (407 feet), Lee scored and Ramos scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML LAD -207 / SF +169
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -181
- SF +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 3.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −1 | LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +58 Elo | LAD 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 3.429th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.4 | Margin | −0.824th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–4 | Road vs home | 4–726th of 30 |
| 28th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 150611th of 30 |
| 1st of 301565 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–11 | 11–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–11 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | — | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 10–12–1 | 10–10–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 25–15 SF in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 25 of 40.